Thursday, June 11, 2009

Goin' Mo-bile!

If you have a BlackBerry, have you checked your email on it while at your office? If you have an iPhone, have you viewed weather, news, or YouTube while at home? If you use an Instant Messenger, have you found yourself using Text Messaging on your phone more frequently? Have you listened to music or watched a video on your phone? How many photos have you taken with your phone in the past month—instead of a camera—and sent to a friend or uploaded to Facebook? Have you used your phone lately like you would a Personal Navigation Device to locate a store and provide directions? If you answered yes to any of these, welcome to the mobile revolution.

This revolution is in full swing despite the global recession. Sales of expensive smartphones are growing, while sales of lesser phones are stagnant in the developed world (note: the developing world has now begun the first wave of the mobile revolution with entry-level and ultra-low cost devices, so new markets will fill demand for basic mobile phones). While Nokia, Samsung, LG, Motorola, Sony Ericsson, and others can supply the developing world with lower margin handsets for years to come, they have to work fast in order to catch up in the smartphone game, where the iPhone and BlackBerry continue to increase market share. And it has not helped matters that handset manufacturers have to deal with mobile carriers. Most carriers think they will control the flow of subscription services, advertising, and transactions on their data networks. Seems logical enough, but they may want to ask any executive with an ISP—cable company, telecom, or independent—“so how did that strategy work out for you?” Even the handset manufacturers expect a piece of the mobile data economy, and this impacts their desire to innovate in ways where they might lose control of these revenue streams. They should ask Dell, H-P, Gateway, and other computer manufacturers how much they are making in e-commerce revenue from Amazon, advertising revenue from Google, and subscription revenue from Salesforce.com.

Only the first two chapters of the mobile revolution have been written so far—first we all got cell phones and then we got basic data service—so how can we predict the next chapters? I suggest that analogies to the Internet revolution are worth exploring for clues. The native mobile application ecosystem popularized by the iPhone reminds me of Netscape’s Navigator browser. Do you remember what the Internet was like BEFORE the Web browser? As a user experience, it sucked. The browser made the Internet accessible to the masses, and led to an explosion in creative applications. While mobile websites ending in .mobi were an early attempt to cope with the form factor of a mobile phone, using a browser on a phone seems as arcane and clunky to me as FTP and Gopher seemed once we had Netscape. The native mobile app eliminates the need to type a URL and “surf.” Regardless of whether I have a phone with a keyboard or a touch screen, I want to minimize typing and surfing... I want what I want, and I want it now. I still have a little patience at my desk, but when I am standing on a street corner, I want to access applications and information on my phone quickly and easily.

So who will be the winners and losers in the mobile revolution? Obviously, the mobile handset manufacturers that deliver quality smartphones will be big winners. If any handset manufacturers want to believe they can maintain market share by continuing to develop slick clamshells and flip phones with cool sounding brand names, but aren’t cutting edge smartphones, they will be losers. The market will consist of smartphones and ultra-low cost devices. The good news is that the big winners will be consumers and businesses globally, as modern communications are brought to the developing world and the developed world enters the next chapter of the mobile revolution, taking modes of interaction and commerce to new levels of productivity and creativity.

I don’t think we can give Pete Townshend credit for envisioning this revolution in The Who’s 1971 hit song “Goin’ Mobile”, but maybe it will be My Generation’s anthem.

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Monday, June 1, 2009

Control of the App Store

Apple is in the enviable position of deciding which native mobile apps get approved and which do not for the iPhone, right? Maybe, but before answering this, we need to understand the significance of Apple’s role and responsibility in the ecosystem of native mobile applications. Let’s start with a little history…

In the early days of consumer Internet usage, the online world was split principally between two consumer experiences: AOL and the World Wide Web. AOL subscribers liked that they were receiving an edited version of the Internet. Everyone else recognized that while the unedited Web was both a mystery and ungoverned, it was far more interesting.

Then Yahoo! and other search engines emerged to catalog websites, which made navigating the Web far easier. These search engines reduced the value proposition of an AOL subscription. As broadband access emerged from cable and telecom companies, free instant messengers like ICQ and free email like Hotmail became popular, and more interesting dot-com companies appeared that were not reliant on AOL for eyeballs, consumers increasingly chose “web surfing” over the closed AOL model.

The Web’s open ecosystem essentially developed absent of regulation or taxation, despite several well-intentioned, but misguided attempts by governments and activists. The global impact of this open ecosystem has been profound and has transformed the way we live, work and communicate.

Fast-forwarding to today, Apple’s iTunes App Store has become the gateway to the mobile web for iPhone users, and so far this platform is driving innovation within the whole mobile web ecosystem. Market share is small but growing for the iPhone (1.5% of all mobile handsets and 10.8% of smartphones). What is even more impressive is over one billion mobile apps were downloaded to those iPhones within the first nine months of launching the App Store. Yet in the midst of this great consumer technology success story, Apple is contending with bad publicity, some frustrated customers, and many angry developers. This is a direct result of Apple’s so-called “enviable position.”

I do not believe Apple wants to be in the business of providing an edited and sanitized version of the mobile application universe, and clearly their customers and developers do not want that either. Every time Apple either bans or approves a controversial mobile app, they are risking a negative reaction from some group. As long as Apple maintains control of the iTune’s App Store approval process and even the functionality of the App Store itself, they risk losing customers to devices that work with applications not approved by the App Store and that work with application stores with better search and review tools. In other words, trying to be like AOL is a dangerous strategy.

Nevertheless, Apple must contend with maintaining carrier relations and a robust user experience, so it may not be so easy to abdicate control. Also Apple’s revenue from the App Store is beginning to look significant, and it is hard to imagine giving that away. AOL enjoyed years of profits and market dominance by taking an early lead; however, they eventually lost their relevance to consumers. Can Apple build enough market share in the mobile ecosystem and then chart a different course? Maybe. At least they understand the competitive forces at work within the mobile industry and have the benefit of history to consider their strategic options; whereas, AOL experienced several sea changes in the competitive landscape when online business models were brand new and untested in the marketplace.

Whether or not Apple is successful long term at sustaining a competitive advantage with the iPhone, they are currently driving consumer adoption of this new interactive medium—much like AOL drove consumer adoption of the Internet—and this new medium will alter how (and where) we use the Internet in our daily lives.

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Saturday, May 16, 2009

On Business Ethics, the Market Meltdown, and Bernie

Back in business school, we had a mandatory ethics course. We read case studies and discussed ethical business dilemmas. Personally I found it interesting, but in retrospect I question the practical application. Those of us who choose to act ethically do so out of principal or at least a healthy fear of punishment, not because we do not have the common sense to understand an ethical dilemma. Those among us who behave without an ethical compass cannot be taught ethics in a classroom.

Plenty of finger pointing is going on now about who and what got us into this economic mess and whether a lack of business ethics is to blame. Of course, the answer is more complex than a discussion of ethics. Most of us contributed to the bubble in some way, and many of us profited from it. The blame game must be very broad in scope. Nevertheless, more finger pointing should be focused at the Federal Reserve, Congress, and the White House for building a perverse framework of rules and incentives for business (mostly under the moniker of “deregulation”), instead of the businesses and individuals simply operating within these rules for financial gain. Criminal characters like Bernie Madoff are just a red herring for government and the press. The market meltdown exposed his unbelievable Ponzi scheme, but he is not to blame for the market meltdown. Yet maybe there is something to learn from the mess we are in by understanding what makes Bernie tick.

If we are to consider changing the rules to encourage more ethical behavior in business (or at least discourage the opposite), we need to consider why an ethical compass is lacking in some business people. Some people think that “business ethics” is an oxymoron; however, I am not one of them. Despite sensational examples of ethical failures from Enron to Madoff Securities and Worldcom to AIG, the majority of businesses and business people try to operate within some framework of social values and ethical conduct.

Many have suggested that Bernie is a psychopath, and the evidence to support this diagnosis is compelling. Psychopathology involves a confluence of interpersonal deficits, such as lack of guilt and empathy, impulsive behaviors, arrogance, and deceitfulness. Successful psychopaths like Bernie also have high intellect, excellent powers of observation, and endless charm. His behavior makes a lot more sense if we understand that he is not concerned with ethics, feels no remorse, and enjoys using manipulation to get what he wants.

Ready for the truly scary part? Estimates are 2% of the general population might be labeled as psychopaths. We tend to focus on a few charismatic murderers, like Ted Bundy or Christian Bale’s character in American Psycho; however, the diagnosis of psychopathology does not require any ghoulish behavior. The prison population is estimated at about 20% psychopaths. Obviously, these are mostly the unsuccessful variety, but very few are bloodthirsty murderers.

This leads me to wonder about career self-selection for the high-functioning psychopath. Do you suppose that the successful psychopaths would become Peace Corp volunteers, preschool teachers, or nurses? Very unlikely. Instead, you may be wondering about politicians, investment bankers, sales professionals, Fortune 1000 CEOs, private fund managers, lawyers, and even entrepreneurs. How frequently might we find successful psychopathic minds in these vocations?

If we assume that more than the average percentage of bad apples can be found in some of these fields, then it is reasonable to ask whether business schools and law schools should teach something about ethics. The problem is there is very little evidence that education or even psychotherapy can remediate the psychopathic mind. Whatever we teach and whatever laws we make, these individuals will naturally desire to game the system without remorse. And the historical record supports this conclusion. Every form of human society breaks down eventually. From communism to capitalism and from democracy to dictatorship, all could result in utopian societies… in theory. In practice, a handful of psychopaths at the top and the bottom of these societies seem to wreak havoc every time.

We should consider the psychopaths when arguing for deregulation of industries and self-policing of business practices. I am a big fan of the core values of capitalism and free markets, but when taken to extremes, their advocates seem very ignorant to the human condition. I wonder if the same people, who promote minimal regulation and self-policing, also lock their doors at night, pick to live in communities with excellent police and fire rescue response times, and believe in a strong military. They see clearly that thieves, arsonists, murderers, and terrorists exist; however, apparently they do not see the need to contain bad actors in the business world. The logically inconsistency would be almost comical, if it was not so pervasive.

Unfortunately debates over business regulation usually have more to do with the political game of improving the position of one interest group over another, and both political parties are guilty. These are not disagreements over genuine principles, although the language is always framed in such terms. Even now, when so many are disillusioned with the efficacy of regulations and enforcement, we are naturally more concerned with what can be done in the short term to repair our stock portfolios and keep our homes from foreclosure. We want medicine now to cope with our symptoms; we cannot collectively focus on how to prevent the disease in the future.

So what can the rest of us do, if no institution is really going to protect us from the psychopaths in the business world? First, educate yourself about the characteristics of psychopaths, and when you think you have spotted one, avoid them like they have the Swine Flu! They can only do you harm both professionally and personally. Second, if you suspect that someone who works for you or with whom you have partnered or invested money is a psychopath, dig deeper. If he or she truly is a psychopath, eventually you will regret your association. Third, if your boss is a psychopath, you may want to find another job. Charismatic bosses with no ethics have dragged too many ethical people into corrupt business practices and government activities. Do not be fooled into thinking you will know when your boss has stepped over the line or manipulated you to do it for him. Fourth, if you take a closer look at your friends, you can identify at least a few potential suspects. If you associate with a lot of successful professionals in business and government, you may be able to identify more than your fair share. You will likely experience a high level of cognitive dissonance between the thoughts “I really like this person” and “this person might be a psychopath.” Try not to let this anxiety lead to rationalization. If you are like me, you will want to prove them innocent. Who wants to accept that long-term friendships held dear might be entirely one-sided? Psychopaths also tend to get worse over time, which can explain why childhood friends of Bernie cannot understand what he has become.

I am not advocating paranoia in your professional or personal relationships. Most interpersonal skills and behaviors that define a psychopath are commonly displayed by all of us in certain circumstances and are often considered valuable when used appropriately. In particular, when you meet someone for the first time in an adversarial context (e.g., a negotiation or competition), this is a lousy time to pass judgment. The charismatic co-worker, business partner, or boss that you already trust is more of a concern, but you should believe that the evidence is overwhelming before passing judgment.

These people must steal, manipulate and enjoin others to prove their own sense of superiority; however, the successful ones, like Bernie, tend to create an attractive veil to hide the truth. They operate in a game with zero-sum rules where they must take from others, but they succeed by building a group of loyal followers. I do not think business schools or government regulations are equipped to identify or contain the bad apples (although they must endeavor to do better). Each of us must take responsibility for our professional and personally associations and try to protect ourselves, because these people cannot succeed at their games without our help.

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Friday, May 8, 2009

"The Rumors of My Death have been Greatly Exaggerated"

I quote Mark Twain not to exaggerate my absence from blogging for five months but to characterize the current negativity surrounding clean tech as an overreaction to several externalities, which will reverse course over time. Lately I have reviewed many cash-starved clean tech companies at various stages of maturity and have been listening to a lot of negative questions and comments about the future of clean tech. Why has clean tech investing dropped by 40% from this time last year?

First, the softening worldwide economy and declining fossil fuel prices have brought into question all new projects related to energy generation, industrial production, infrastructure development, and building construction. Most clean tech businesses are highly levered to these industries. Second, financing constraints across the capital structure (e.g., all forms of credit, private equity, and venture capital) have stalled many growth plans; however, these constraints are non-specific to clean tech. In other words, the uphill battle of financing clean tech technology and commercial projects is collateral damage of the rapid deleveraging across capital markets. Third, regulatory uncertainty over cap-and-trade is delaying many clean tech projects. Everyone expects a new regulatory regime to emerge; however, the timing and economic models of this market remain unclear. Fourth, how quickly and efficiently Federal and state government stimulus will translate into infrastructure funding and tax incentives for clean tech projects remains in question. Fifth, the failed hype over ethanol has become of an example of the risks and complexities of investing in over-hyped “green technology.”

The good news is that a clean tech bubble did not burst and the demand trends towards efficiency, conservation, and environmental stewardship have not fallen out of favor. Fossil fuel prices have not fallen so far as to invalidate worthwhile alternative fuel development or clean generation. Moreover, funding of new technology has already been deployed in such volume that we are sure to see amazing advances within the next several years. Regulatory change, infrastructure development, and an eventual end to this recessionary environment will drive clean technology initiatives to new heights. And, finally, as credit markets begin to function properly and venture capitalists return for the hunt, I suspect that clean tech will flourish.

Nevertheless, there are some important lessons to learn as entrepreneurs and investors wander through the wilderness in search of a promised land for clean tech:

  • The term “clean tech” has stimulated discussion and generated interest from investors; however, it is too general for such a broad market space. Can you imagine if we still used the term “information technology,” instead of recognizing the diversity of businesses amongst enterprise software, personal computers, data centers, wireless platforms, e-commerce, smartphones, robotics, electronic storage, semiconductors, distributed computing, mobile advertising, new media, etc.? We must move beyond this term to distinguish amongst worthwhile market categories that fit generally under the clean tech umbrella.
  • Technologies focused on conservation and efficiency can thrive in this economic environment. Investors have tended to ignore many promising technologies and ventures that are not focused on alternative fuels and alternative energy. Let us not forget that some “green” categories can boast a value proposition of direct ROI from cost savings.
  • All bio fuels are not created equal. Maybe today’s ethanol and biodiesel technologies are not ready for mass commercialization with $55/bbl oil prices; however, the geopolitical and environmental issues of fossil fuels will not disappear.
  • In the rush for alternative energy, we have missed many opportunities to seek innovation within markets that still involve fossil fuels. Better recovery technologies, more efficient refining, cleaner generation, smart grids, and other technologies have often been ignored by well-intentioned investors because they do not appear to be as “green” as developing new biofuels. The facts are that innovations in these ignored areas could have a greater impact on reducing greenhouse gases and building energy independence within the next 15 years than most alternative energy ventures.
  • Clean tech investing requires more interdisciplinary domain knowledge than funding new media ventures or lending to commercial real estate. If you are looking at early stage businesses, and you do not understand the science or the industry dynamics at play, you should not be an investor. Too many early stage venture capitalists—who have never set foot in an electric utility or chemistry lab—were ready to pick winners in alternative energy. This is not a game of finding the next eBay or MySpace. Late stage VCs often did not understand how fragile their non-control equity position would be in a capital stack filled with senior and subordinated debt to build commercial scale facilities. Finally, banks and hedge funds were chasing yield by supplying cheap, covenant-light credit for technology and markets that were completely unproven.
The first inning of the clean tech revolution is over, and we need to reconfigure our game plan before the next inning starts. That’s the bad news. The good news is there will be a second inning, and I expect to see more base hits and home runs.

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